Baccarat Strategies

Before we get into the strategies, let’s quickly cover the essentials. In baccarat, you’ve got three main bets: Player, Banker, and Tie.

• Player means that you’re betting on the Player hand to win. It wins if it has a higher hand total than the Banker (or is closer to 9 than the banker). If it wins, the payout is 1:1. This is the most straightforward bet with no commission and the simplest third-card rule: if the total is 0–5, the Player draws a third card. If it’s 6 or 7, it stands. 8 or 9 is a “natural” and the hand ends immediately.
• Banker means betting on the Banker hand. It also pays 1:1, but the casino takes a 5% commission on wins (in most baccarat games). Banker’s third card rules are a bit trickier, because whether it draws depends not only on its own total but also on the Player’s third card. Don’t worry too much about memorising the table, just know Banker has slightly better odds than Player, which is why this is statistically the smartest bet in the game.
• Tie means that you’re betting that Player and Banker end up with the same total. It usually pays 8:1 or 9:1, depending on the casino.

Besides the bets, there are a few other things you’ll hear at the baccarat table. The shoe is just the box that holds the decks, and since most games use six or eight decks, you can’t really rely on card counting in baccarat.

Other terms you’ll come across (and I’ll use in this guide) include:

• Commission – The 5% vig the casino takes when the Banker wins because of the higher odds of winning.
• Natural – A natural happens when either hand hits 8 or 9 with the first two cards. It means that no third card will be drawn.
• Streaks – It’s when either bet (Banker or Player) has been winning several consecutive hands in a row.
• Side bets – Optional bets that you can, but don’t have to play. They usually come with worse odds.
• Super 6 – A popular side bet specifically on the Banker hand winning with a total of 6. The payout is usually 12:1, but a Super 6 Baccarat can also be synonymous with no commission baccarat.

Now, the gameplay itself. In standard baccarat, or Punto Banco (the version you’ll see in most Aussie casinos), you don’t draw cards, hit, or make decisions like in poker or blackjack. You’re not actually playing the hand.

You’re an observer, watching the Player and Banker hands play out, and your job is to bet on the outcome. That’s why strategy in baccarat is mostly about choosing the right bets and managing your money, not manipulating the cards.

If you’re new to baccarat or need a refresher on the rules, I suggest you check out my baccarat for beginners guide that covers everything from types of baccarat to bet types and whatnot.

Baccarat is ridiculously simple to play. The dealer handles everything (if it’s a live dealer game), and you don’t pick cards or take any action. The only action that you do in baccarat is:

1. Select your bet size.
2. Choose which hand you think will win (Player, Banker, or Tie).
3. That’s it. Everything else is automatic, and you just monitor the game and see if you have won or not.

So, the only variables you can control are the hand you choose and the bet size. Now, in the next section, I’ll ‘remove’ one of those variables and leave you with just one option you can control.

Let’s cut to the chase: if you’re playing baccarat seriously, Banker is the bet you should stick to. It wins slightly more often than Player (around 50.68% of hands versus 49.32% for Player), and that tiny edge is why the casino charges a 5% commission. Even with the commission, Banker still gives you the highest odds of winning (RTP of Banker bet is around 98.94%).

The Player bet isn’t bad, but it loses slightly more often, so statistically, it’s a worse bet over the long run. Of course, you can bet on Player or even a Tie. Your gut might tell you to switch it up, or maybe you just feel lucky. Have I ever bet on Player or Tie? Absolutely. And no, it doesn’t mean you’ll always lose. Sometimes it hits.

But you came here to read my guide on strategies, so it’s my duty to tell you which bet is better in the long run, and that’s the Banker bet.

Since baccarat is an even-money game (for the most part), you can use the same betting systems that players use in other even-money bets, like Red/Black in roulette. The key difference here is that we’re betting on the Banker bet, which pays out 0.95:1 instead of true 1:1 (due to the higher odds of winning), but I’ll explain how we can handle this.

Of course, if you want, you can use the Player bet, which is a bit simpler because the payout is 1:1, and the odds of winning are just slightly lower.

All the baccarat strategies are actually betting systems where you adjust your bet size. Every strategy I’ll demonstrate below revolves around the same idea: you place the same type of bet, but you change the wager size depending on the outcome.

Disclaimer: The point isn’t to “beat the house,” because no betting system can do that long term. All these betting systems are just sophisticated bankroll management tools and a structured way to play the game. 

Oscar’s Grind has been my go-to betting system for over a decade. And, as the name suggests, it’s really a grind, so you’ll have to work for every buck you win with it.

You start by setting the unit size. Let’s say it’s A$10. The goal of the strategy is to win 1 unit. Once you do, the cycle ends, so you can then start a new cycle.

Now, I said that we’ll use the Banker bet. Still, since Oscar’s Grind is best-suited for true even-money payouts, I suggest you look for a No Commission Baccarat game. But even if you can’t find one, you can play standard baccarat; just note that the win of every cycle will be slightly lower due to the commission. You can even use the Player bet for simplicity.

You bet 1 unit on the Banker bet. If you win, you take your 1 unit profit, and the cycle ends. If you lose, you place the same bet size again (A$10 in our case). If you lose again, you place the same bet again. You continue after you win. Now, after every win, you increase the bet size by 1 unit, and you continue the same pattern until you end up 1 unit in profit.

Let’s give you an example of how a typical session plays out:

I mentioned that the 5% commission will mess Oscar’s Grind a little bit, so you won’t get a neat +1 unit, but it’s doable if you accept decimals. Also, to adjust for this change, you can reset when you reach ≥ +1 unit profit, not exactly +1. Or, just play a No Commission Baccarat game or play the Player hand.

I love Oscar’s Grind because it’s slow, predictable, and the chances of hitting the table limits are very low. Sometimes, you can play for hours and still end up with the same starting bankroll, which is exactly the point.

The Labouchere, also known as the Cancellation system, is a structured betting system that I only recommend if you have a bit of experience. You start by deciding how much profit you want to make. Then, you need to write down a sequence of numbers that add up to that goal. Let’s say you have decided to make a profit of A$30. You can write down: 3, 6, 9, 7, 3, 2.

Each of these numbers represents the bet size. This is how you play it:

1. You add the first and last numbers of the sequence. In our case, 2+3=5, so you bet A$5 on Banker.
2. If you win, you cross out both numbers. Then, you proceed to the next (3+6=9), so you wager A$9.
3. If you lose, you add the bet amount to the end of the sequence (to the right). So, if we lost our first bet, we add 5 to the sequence.
4. We repeat the process until all numbers are crossed out, which means we have reached our target profit.

Obviously, the higher our target profit, the lower our chances of succeeding. This is a much more aggressive system than Oscar’s Grind, so I suggest you always plan your bankroll and the table limits ahead of time.

The 2 Up 2 Down strategy is a variation of the D’Alembert system, where you increase the bet after each loss and decrease it after each win. Now, here, I suggest you start with a base bet of around A$10.

Again, you bet on the Banker, and if you lose, you bet the same amount again.

If you experience two losses in a row, you increase your bet by one unit (so we bet A$20 instead of A$10). We keep playing at that level until we get two wins in a row.

After two wins in a row, we reduce the bet by one unit (back to A$10 if we were at A$20).

The cycle continues: two losses = increase one unit, two wins = decrease one unit. Any single win or loss alone doesn’t trigger change. Here’s an example of how it plays out:

The goal of each cycle is to end with 1 unit of profit. As you can see, the 2 Up 2 Down shares some similarities with Oscar’s Grind, but it’s even slower, and that’s what I like about it. It’s not aggressive and doesn’t demand huge bankrolls.

The 1-3-2-6 is a very aggressive system that I only recommend for short bursts. I have to warn you that, in comparison to systems like 2 Up 2 Down or Oscar’s Grind, here, you might make a good profit in just a few hands, but you can also lose a lot.

This is a positive progression strategy, which basically means you increase your bets when you win, and reset when you lose. You pick a base unit, like A$10, and then you follow this sequence: 1 unit > 3 units > 2 units > 6 units.

1. Bet 1 unit on Banker. If you win, you move to step 2. If you lose, you start over at 1 unit.
2. Bet 3 units. If you win, you go to Step 3. If you lose, you start over at 1 unit.
3. Bet 2 units. If you win, go to Step 4. Lose? Start over at 1 unit.
4. Bet 6 units. If you win, you’ve completed the sequence and you win A$120. If you lose, start over at 1 unit.

I don’t usually recommend aggressive betting systems, but there’s a reason why I like this one: if you lose on step 3 or 4, you haven’t really lost anything. In fact, if you lose on step 3, you end up with A$20 in profit. And if you lose on step 4, you end up on net zero, but you get the chance to win A$120.

No strategy is foolproof, and neither is this one. The biggest risk is losing in the early rounds, so you might end up losing more than you initially gained. Also, the system doesn’t account for losing streaks, which is a very realistic scenario in a game of chance like baccarat.

Baccarat is a simple game, so keep it simple. Don’t overcomplicate things with some next-level betting systems that ChatGPT has developed for you, or with some exotic side bets. Just stick to the Banker (or Player) bets, and manage your bet size.

All the strategies that I recommend, like Oscar’s Grind, Labouchere, 2 Up 2 Down, and 1-3-2-6, are all about managing your bets, not guaranteeing wins. With the exception of 1-3-2-6, they’re all defensive, especially Oscar’s Grind and 2 Up 2 Down, and when it comes to baccarat, defence is good.

And again, I don’t recommend strategies like Martingale, where you risk big losses for a minimal gain, because they’re not worth it.

Choose a table with as wide a minimum and maximum bets as possible, stick to the basic bets, and don’t chase streaks. Keep it steady and enjoy the game for what it is instead of trying to make a fortune in a day.