Table of Contents
Written by
Mike Waters
Edited by
Matthew Scott
What Are Gambling Fallacies?
Gambling fallacies are beliefs or assumptions by players that often feel logical, but in reality, they’re not how gambling works. They’re just ideas that some players use to justify losses, explain wins, or convince themselves that the next bet will be different.
will be different, but that’s not because the ‘stars have aligned’ or anything like that. The problem here is that most of these beliefs are wrong, and believing in them usually leads to poor decisions.
Simply put, gambling fallacies come from our need to make sense of randomness. We can’t really comprehend how something can truly be random, and that’s especially true when money is involved. We try to look for patterns, meaning, or causes when none of them really exist.
We tend to take streaks of losses personally, or feel like we’ve ‘earned a win’, but none of it is really the case.
These ideas didn’t start with online casinos or sports betting apps, but they’ve been around for as long as people have been betting on something. Dice games, for example, have been around for thousands of years, and people have been putting all their savings on their ‘lucky numbers’ or avoiding ‘cursed’ ones long before modern casino games existed.
The games themselves have nothing to do with the fallacies. Be it pokies, roulette, or any other casino game, the thinking is the same: players believe they’re due for a win, that a ‘bad run must come to an end’, or that someone else’s loss or bad luck means that the ‘good luck’ will turn to them.
The problem with gambling fallacies is that they occasionally feel right, and it’s easier to credit it to the belief instead of the maths.
Humans are being led by emotion, so most fallacies are just emotional reactions to what’s happening in the game. Our brains just hate randomness, and we want order and reason in everything. When you lose three times in a row, it feels wrong that the fourth has the same chance as the first. You feel like you’re closer to winning, and when you’re ‘close’ to winning, it feels like progress.
It’s comforting to believe that you have some level of control, even though that control is completely fake. You want to feel that you can influence the result of the game somehow, but the problem is that casino games don’t care about feelings, timing, or past results.
It’s not wrong to believe in luck. Casino games are games of luck anyway, and that emotional roller coaster is why we play them in the first place. It’s not the emotion that you need to remove from gambling, but you need to avoid making bad decisions based on some ‘logic’ that you’re trying to find.
With the exception of some casino games that involve skill (like blackjack and poker), the only logic you can find is the game’s RTP (Return to Player ratio), the available bets and their payouts, and your bankroll management.
The Most Common Gambling Fallacies
Walk into any casino out there, and you’ll hear players talking about how a particular pokie machine is ‘due to give’ because it hasn’t happened in a while, or how a particular blackjack dealer brings bad luck.
All of these assumptions fall into the ‘gambling fallacies’ category, and you’ll hear them at pub pokies, big casino venues, sports betting parlours, and even in online casino chat rooms.
What I find funny is that they’re often said with full confidence, and you wouldn’t be able to convince these players otherwise, no matter how hard you tried to. But you’re better than that, so below, I’ll explain some of the most common gambler fallacies I’ve come across and explain why they don’t hold up.
If I had a penny every time I heard the “it’s due” fallacy, I’d probably be sitting on a beach somewhere on the Gold Coast instead of writing this. This belief is literally everywhere, but it’s especially common with pokies. Players see a machine that hasn’t paid for a while and assume it has to be getting close, because surely that’s how RTP works… right?
That’s not how it works at all. RTP doesn’t mean a machine keeps track of how much money players have put in and then decides when to give it back. Each spin is generated independently, and the game has no memory of previous results. A pokie that hasn’t paid all night has the exact same chance of paying on the next spin as one that just hit a jackpot.
We always want things to balance out, so that’s why the idea that something is ‘due’ to happen feels logical here. In gambling, things don’t balance out, and believing that something is ‘due to happen’ is just mindless. Just because someone ‘fed the machine’ doesn’t mean that the jackpot must drop in the next few spins. No one, not you nor the casino, knows when the jackpot will drop.
I’ve witnessed people hitting two jackpots in a few seconds, and I’ve witnessed players playing the same pokie for more than 24 hours without a single big hit. The outcome is completely random, and the sooner you accept it, the better it will be for your balance.
As the name suggests, this is a gambling fallacy that believes in hot numbers. It shows up after a few wins, and you’ve probably seen it or even done it yourself. I believe this is the most dangerous gambling fallacy because it gives you a false sense of control. You think you’re on a roll, you’ve got it all figured out, you’re invincible.
You’ve hit a few good wins on a pokie or a few hands in blackjack, and now you feel like you’re “on a run”. The logic is that something good is happening, so why stop now?
The problem is that a winning streak doesn’t change anything about the next bet. The game doesn’t care that you’ve just won, and there’s no such thing as “momentum” in gambling. The odds are exactly the same whether you’ve been winning all night or losing from the first spin.
Hot streaks can be very dangerous and the easiest to fall for, so be very careful. It might make you bet faster and more money than you planned to, and you’ll end up giving back more than what you’ve just won.
Many casino games, especially games like roulette, will display the ‘hot and cold’ numbers. The ‘cold’ numbers are numbers that haven’t been hit frequently in the last turns.
The “cold streak” or “cold machine” fallacy is the opposite of “it’s due”, but just as common. Players would label a pokie machine or a table as “cold” and avoid it, believing it’s not paying or is somehow in a bad phase. Or, they would use the specific machine or bet on the specific roulette numbers because they’re cold, so they must “warm up soon”, right? Wrong.
The truth is that casino games don’t run hot or cold in the way people imagine. A machine that hasn’t paid recently isn’t broken, tight, or punishing players. It just works the same way it always does.
No matter if you avoid “cold” machines or numbers, or you chase them because they’re “due to give”, you can’t change the odds! The game doesn’t remember previous results, so the past results have nothing to do with what will happen next.
A near miss can glue players to a pokie machine or a table, and it can be very dangerous to their bankrolls. Two scatters instead of three, four jackpot symbols instead of five, busting out in blackjack with 22, missing a straight-up win in roulette by one number…
The problem with this fallacy is that you feel like you’ve made progress and that you were very close to winning, when, in reality, a near miss is still a full loss. It’s no different from any other losing result, and doesn’t increase your chances next time. You weren’t close – you were just as far from winning as any other loss.
Near misses are dangerous because they trick your brain into thinking you’re getting closer, when in reality, every spin or hand starts from the same point.
Chasing losses is one of the most damaging fallacies out there, and I’m personally asking you NOT to fall for it.
It starts very innocently at first, so be very careful and try to recognise the patterns early. Namely, after a bad run, players convince themselves that one good win will fix everything, so they bet more, raise stakes, or keep playing longer than planned.
The odds don’t improve because you’re down. Betting bigger doesn’t make a win more likely – it just makes the loss hurt more when it doesn’t come.
Chasing losses will turn short losing sessions into expensive ones, and it’s the fastest way to lose control of your bankroll and decision-making.
Note from Australian Gamblers: This is where things can get out of hand. Chasing losses often leads to decisions you’d never make in a calm headspace, like borrowing money, dipping into your savings, or using funds meant for rent, bills, or groceries. I’ve seen players justify it by saying they’ll “sort it out after one win”, but that win isn’t guaranteed, and the stress usually hits before the recovery does. This is the point when you need to take a step back, stop playing, and make use of the responsible gambling tools provided by most Australian casinos.
Whether it’s a betting progression, a special betting strategy, or a pattern someone swears by, many players believe they’ve found a system that beats the game.
As someone who has played all types of casino games (and has been doing this for decades), I can guarantee you that there is no betting system that changes odds and probabilities. All they do is change how your money moves, and if a system genuinely worked long-term, casinos wouldn’t offer the game in the first place.
Don’t get it wrong – I’m not against systems. They create structure and can be very useful as bankroll management tools, but they can be dangerous if they give you false confidence and keep you betting more than you should.
This fallacy shows up in many different forms: lucky numbers, lucky seats, lucky shirts, pressing the button a certain way, or similar. Deep down, players know these things shouldn’t matter, but they still stick to them religiously.
The reason is simple. It feels better to believe you have some influence over the outcome than to accept that you don’t.
This is not as ‘dangerous’ as the other fallacies because these habits create comfort and routine, and they can actually serve as bankroll management tools, but it would be foolish to believe that they can affect the results in any meaningful way.
If you’ve spent enough time in casinos, you’ve heard this one, too. Some players blame dealers for bad runs, avoid certain tables, or even leave mid-session because a specific dealer is “killing the table”.
Blaming the dealer is a way to shift frustration somewhere else instead of accepting the variance of the game, and it’s a complete gambler’s fallacy. Obviously, dealers don’t control the cards, the wheel, or the outcomes, so you shouldn’t blame them for your bad luck.
How to Avoid Gambling Fallacies
The first step to avoiding gambling fallacies is accepting one uncomfortable truth: casino games don’t care about you, your luck, your mood, or what just happened five minutes ago. Once you truly understand that, a lot of these beliefs and fallacies will be debunked on their own.
One thing that helps is slowing down your decisions. Take a deep breath and try to think clearly: can I (or anything else, for that matter) really influence the outcome? Most fallacies actually show up when your emotions take over, be it after a loss, a near miss, or even a winning streak.
Here are a few tips on how to avoid falling into the gambling fallacy pitfalls:
- Set limits before you start playing: Decide how much you’re willing to lose and how long you’ll play before you place a single bet. Limits work best when emotions haven’t kicked in yet, so set them beforehand and stick to them.
- Treat every bet as a fresh one: Remember: Past results don’t matter. A bad run doesn’t make a win more likely, and a good run doesn’t mean it will continue. Take every bet as a new one because it IS a new one.
- Avoid changing your strategy mid-session: If you find yourself increasing bets, switching machines, or chasing a feeling, stop immediately. Take a breather and give yourself some time. That’s usually a fallacy creeping in, so reconcile and either walk away or continue playing, but remember what you know about gambling fallacies.
- Focus on what you can control: You can’t control the outcomes in gambling, but you can control bankroll management, bet size, and when you walk away.
- Know when to stop: The most important thing to remember is to know when to stop. If gambling starts feeling stressful, urgent, or forced, just call it a day.
At the end of the day, gambling is meant to be entertainment, and you’ll make better decisions if you see it as a source of entertainment instead of trying to outthink randomness and outsmart casinos.
Can You Beat Casino Games?
The honest answer is no, you can’t beat casino games, but you can win at casino games. People win every day. Jackpots hit, lucky runs happen, and that’s how casino games work. The important part is this: those wins don’t happen because a machine was due, a number was hot, or a dealer was lucky or unlucky.
In most casino games, the odds are fixed. You’re playing against probability, so moods, momentum, or hot and cold numbers have nothing to do with it.
Fallacies don’t improve your chances. If anything, they just give you reasons to keep playing when you probably shouldn’t. In fact, some fallacies can be very dangerous long-term.
Bottom Line: Why You Shouldn’t Fall For Gambling Fallacies
Obviously, it’s not dangerous to believe in something silly, but letting that belief influence how much you bet, how long you play, or how you react to losses can be dangerous.
Games that involve skill, like poker or blackjack, give you more control, but even there, fallacies can still do damage if they make you overconfident or lead to making emotional decisions. Discipline matters just as much as skill does, and luck still plays a role, but they’re all factors that you’re already aware of – so don’t fall for fallacies.
Enjoy the wins when they come, accept the losses when they don’t, practice bankroll management, and don’t let gambling fallacies convince you that the game owes you anything.
Disclaimer: Gambling in Australia is strictly for individuals aged 18+. Our editorial team adheres to a strict policy to ensure that our reviews, recommendations, and content remain objective and free from external influence. We strongly encourage responsible gambling at all times. If you or someone you know is struggling with gambling addiction, visit the following gambling resources:
- https://responsiblewagering.com.au/
- https://www.gamblinghelponline.org.au/
- https://gamblershelp.com.au/get-help/
